U.S. Macro Indicator
Continuously updated series (no discrete release)
Latest reading: 0.07 pp (2026-06-01).
Sahm Rule recession indicator — triggers when the three-month average unemployment rate rises 0.50 percentage points or more above its low over the prior 12 months. A useful scenario flag, best combined with credit spreads, claims and PMI rather than traded in isolation.
| Period | Value | |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 0.07 pp | |
| 2026-05-01 | 0.10 pp | |
| 2026-04-01 | 0.13 pp | |
| 2026-03-01 | 0.20 pp | |
| 2026-02-01 | 0.27 pp | |
| 2026-01-01 | 0.30 pp | |
| 2025-12-01 | 0.35 pp | |
| 2025-11-01 | 0.35 pp | |
| 2025-10-01 | 0.25 pp | |
| 2025-09-01 | 0.23 pp | |
| 2025-08-01 | 0.13 pp | |
| 2025-07-01 | 0.17 pp |